(ATR) As the world races to develop a Covid-19 vaccine, it is unlikely to be ready for Tokyo.
Dr. Robert Gallo, whose crowning accomplishment as a virus researcher was co-discovering HIV as the cause of AIDS, tells Around the Rings that he thinks it is unlikely a vaccine will be ready in time for next year’s Olympics.
"It’s at least a year away," he said in a recent phone interview.
Even with an expedited timeline, Gallo says "I think you can go forward with the Olympics without a vaccine. However, you’d have to have evidence that the virus has essentially gone away. You don’t know that that’s going to happen."
As with virtually everything related to the Covid-19 pandemic, Gallo says it’s too hard to predict anything with the virus’ imminent behavior.
"If I was running the Olympics I would say proceed forward. Everyone says the second wave is sure--we don’t know."
Gallo says the IOC and Tokyo must consider other options with staging the Olympics, including a further delay.
"By the end of this year I would really start re-evaluating," Gallo said.
Gallo is the co-founder of the Global Virus Network and co-founder and director of the Institute of Human Virology at the University of Maryland School of Medicine.
One of the world’s leading public health experts rejects Gallo’s belief on the necessity of a vaccine.
Dr. Ezekiel Emmanuel, a University of Pennsylvania professor and co-director of the school’s Health Transformation Institute has written prolifically about the return of professional sports in the U.S. He has been highly critical of sports restarting in the era of Covid-19.
Emmanuel said in an email he has not had time to focus on the Olympics specifically but tells ATR: "holding these events safely with fans will require a vaccine and having fans and players certified to have a vaccine."
Assuming Gallo is correct and a vaccine is not necessary, he says the Olympics are still potentially a risky event.
"I would rather be outdoors than--say at a wrestling match," he added. "Outdoors the odds of getting infected are not high."
Japan, in Gallo’s opinion, is a good Olympic host country from a public health perspective with robust sanitation efforts and healthcare access. He also has personal experience with Japan’s medical system having been hospitalized while travelling in Japan.
"They did a good job. I don’t know if Jesus is there, I don’t know what miracles they can pull off. I would feel better off there than other places."
With a mere six months between the Tokyo and Beijing Olympics, current predictions indicate Covdi-19’s waves should have flatlined in between Games. And while new diseases and pandemics can wreak havoc at any point, Gallo says researchers do not see any particular virus or viral events that could be relevant on a global scale by the 2022 Winter Olympics.
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